On Peter Obi and the 2027 Campaign Path

By Elempe Dele

I have watched Mr. Peter Obi closely in recent weeks, and I have read enough comment sections under his news clips and interviews to form an opinion about his campaign path. I must confess: he seems to be losing the public goodwill that once hailed him as the next best thing to happen to Nigeria.

From my observation, he is failing to project presidential strength. With just a few months to the general election, he cannot afford to squander the 2023 support base built by the Obidient Movement by leaning on emotional and personal appeals instead of activating substantive policy.

Obi is a good man, in comparative terms. He is frugal and comes from a business background. But I do not hold the same opinion about his capacity as a leader, or whether he would make a good president if elected — which, in my view, is unlikely in 2027.

Obi has used his access to media interviews to his own disadvantage. Instead of shaping public opinion, he appears to be chasing it through emotional appeals and a narrative of victimhood. That, I find unfortunate. Can highlighting alleged persecution actually rally the support needed to exceed the 6 million votes he won in 2023?

After his recent interview with Rufai Oseni and the backlash that followed, I expected him to pause, consult communication experts, and fine-tune his messaging. That never happened. Instead, he is sinking deeper into what I can only describe as unforced errors.

“I might not be alive for the next election. My businesses are being targeted. People no longer invite me to marriages. I was told not to park somewhere at the airport…” Is he telling Nigerians he is so vulnerable?

How do these statements translate into a winning campaign strategy when APC stalwarts have just launched the _PBAT Door-to-Door Movement_, a new grassroots structure for PBAT’s 2027 re-election? The ruling party is building machinery early through a nationwide well-structured grassroot effort.

In trying to win the public through emotional appeals, Obi is coming across as a pitiable figure — someone who cannot be trusted to handle the pressures of governance of a complex nation like Nigeria with vast challenges such as an invisible cartel, terrorism and age-long poverty.

Who exactly is targeting your businesses? Which businesses? Who refused to greet you for fear of government association, when you have millions of followers who call you a Christ-like figure in Nigerian politics? Who wants to kill you? Why not report to security agencies with evidence and demand protection?

These personal safety narratives, without evidence or formal complaints, seem vague and alarmist to me. I cannot tell how many votes they will swing in his favour. I do know, however, that a section of the elite and the ordinary voters will vote based on perceived competence, deliverables, and structured organization.

Yes, Obi has the demography of the anti-establishment in his favour. His 2023 performance shows this – he was seen as an alternative to the status quo of recycled politicians owing to decades of governance trust deficits. But translating this popularity and messaging of persecution into political victory, without strong political machinery, will prove difficult.

Political struggle cannot survive on populist mantras alone. Candidates must demonstrate capacity. They must engage the thematic issues that shape public discourse: insecurity, the economy, reforms, infrastructure, and a clear economic blueprint. Political struggle also requires ideological clarity and credible alternatives capable of mobilizing political consciousness. As a matter of fact, some voters prefer spirits of resilience over pity, frustration and unpolished claims.

None of this is what Obi is doing presently. Instead, he is projecting the image of a man to be pitied — as if he runs an underfunded orphanage. His messaging seems drawn from empathy, not strength.

I do not believe this can win elections in 2027. The people want practical alternatives to this administration’s record. We need to get these things clear. Not only rigging makes candidate loose elections, lack of strategy and preparedness can be factors as well.